Using the Bitcoin Transaction Graph to Predict the Price of Bitcoin

نویسندگان

  • Alex Greaves
  • Benjamin Au
چکیده

Bitcoin is the world’s leading cryptocurrency, allowing users to make transactions securely and anonymously over the Internet. In recent years, The Bitcoin the ecosystem has gained the attention of consumers, businesses, investors and speculators alike. While there has been significant research done to analyze the network topology of the Bitcoin network, limited research has been performed to analyze the network’s influence on overall Bitcoin price. In this paper, we investigate the predictive power of blockchain network-based features on the future price of Bitcoin. As a result of blockchain-networkbased feature engineering and machine learning optimization, we obtain up-down Bitcoin price movement classification accuracy of roughly 55%.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Using Machine Learning ARIMA to Predict the Price of Cryptocurrencies

The increasing volatility in pricing and growing potential for profit in digital currency have made predicting the price of cryptocurrency a very attractive research topic. Several studies have already been conducted using various machine-learning models to predict crypto currency prices. This study presented in this paper applied a classic Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model ...

متن کامل

Study and Research on the Six-Year Process of Bitcoin Price and Return

The purpose of this study, is create a challenge and discussion concerning the existence of information about the Bitcoin price and return, which suggests the relationship of information and the strong performance it. The information trends are available at different time periods and the summary data related to the statistical descriptions for the price and return index are also discussed. In t...

متن کامل

Time series forecasting of Bitcoin price based on ARIMA and machine learning approaches

Bitcoin as the current leader in cryptocurrencies is a new asset class receiving significant attention in the financial and investment community and presents an interesting time series prediction problem. In this paper, some forecasting models based on classical like ARIMA and machine learning approaches including Kriging, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Bayesian method, Support Vector Machine...

متن کامل

When Bitcoin encounters information in an online forum: Using text mining to analyse user opinions and predict value fluctuation

Bitcoin is an online currency that is used worldwide to make online payments. It has consequently become an investment vehicle in itself and is traded in a way similar to other open currencies. The ability to predict the price fluctuation of Bitcoin would therefore facilitate future investment and payment decisions. In order to predict the price fluctuation of Bitcoin, we analyse the comments p...

متن کامل

Value or Bubble? A Decomposition of the Bitcoin Price

In this study, I analyze Bitcoin transaction data and build an economic model on Bitcoin traders incentives to decompose the Bitcoin price into a utility-driven component, a speculative component, and a friction component. The model I build extends the LDA (Latent-Dirichlet-Allocation) model, and I perform a paralleled collapsed Gibbs Sampling method to estimate the realized incentives of each ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2015